Will $500,000,000,000 in AI investment kill America?

Project Stargate: $500,000,000,000(i.e. $500b, the GDP of Singapore) in AI over the next four years, starting with $100,000,000,000 (i.e. $100b, the GDP of Bulgaria). https://lnkd.in/getadcFN

These numbers boggle the mind. The California fires have been estimated to cost between $250b and $275b, which is just about half the total investment into Project Stargate.

How much of this money is likely to be spent on mitigating bias? What about on exploring the risks of AI? I don’t mean AGI, Singularity, or about AI taking jobs. I mean the day-to-day risks to ordinary people: the spreading of misinformation and biases. We all saw the damage that Facebook and Cambridge Analytica brought to the world. How much more damage could this cause?

How might these new tools be used to manipulate, control and oppress? How might these tools further marginalise those who are already disaffected?

Yes, there might be fantastic breakthroughs, but at what cost?

I am somehow reminded of the poem “First they came…”:

First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—
And there was no one left to speak for me.

The Manhattan Project, which built the first Nuclear bomb, cost $2 billion, which, adjusted for inflation, comes to $27 billion. America wants to spend almost 20 times that amount over roughly the same time on Project Stargate.

I apologise for the doom & gloom, but I have genuine concerns about the risks at play here. How about you? Are you worried, excited or both?

I was watching a video by Dave Thomas (one of the authors of The Pragmatic Programmer) where he explains that the idea of best practices is misleading. He argues that best practices are contextual.

Dave uses the example of Agile, which is a sore topic for many. He talks about how selling shrinkwrapped agile is not going to work, because it is different for each company, and each team. It has to be custom fit.

It’s hard to disagree. I do think though that a lot of the practices that are talked about as being the “best,” are good practices. However, a challenge is that a lot of these practices depend upon or are meant to encourage “good mindsets.” The mindsets are far more valuable than the practice itself.

The question then becomes about how prepared an organisation or team is to shift their mindset. As you probably know, it sometimes feels like it would be easier to move the earth than some mindsets.

I encourage people to consider practices (good, bad and ugly) with a critical perspective to understand the mindset behind it. Only then is the question of relevancy capable of being answered. If the mindset that is encouraged can be achieved in another way, that could be your version of that practice.

The problem, of course, is that communication is difficult, and our ability to perceive possibilities is limited by our own perspectives. Sometimes, it takes a period of trying out a practice before we can begin to understand its potential value.

What do you think about best practices? Are there universal ones?

Two weeks into mapping out a project, I realised that we’d underestimated the lead-time. We’d have to push for overtime, pushing harder and longer to meet the original deadline. You’ve probably been there before - I have! This time though, I resisted. There must be a better way!

Agile really shines here. In fact, it was agile that pointed out that the original estimates (which we thought was pessimistic) was actually still optimistic. The two weeks of user story mapping saved us a great deal of pain.

As Robert C. Martin puts it:

Planning can destroy hope… and show us just how screwed we are.

By constantly reassessing plans, Agile gives us an early warning system when things are slipping.

I used to think that the point of Agile was to be faster. The book Clean Agile argues that the point is to fail sooner.

In our case, Agile gave us an early warning system. It killed hope before hope killed the product.

Instead of going into overdrive and being a workaholic (again), we simplified scope, adjusted the deadline and found a better balance.

We like to think of this as the way of the tortoise.

How has Agile helped/impeded you and your team?

There once was a boy,
And the boy was not afraid.

He looked out at the world,
Everywhere he looked,
Everyone he knew,
Led their life carefully,
Moved through crowds cautiously,
Stayed far from the ledge.

It took many years,
Jumping off many cliffs,
Chasing butterflies,
Breaking his little heart,
many, many times.

He understood the fear,
He felt it as he lay on the floor,
cradling himself,
Afraid to open the door,
Afraid to get up,
Afraid to breathe,
Letting the darkness take him.

The fear permeated him,
Every pore, nook and cranny,
A darkness with no beginning,
A darkness with no end.

Forsaken!

Cold!

Afraid!

Alone!

Flicker,
Flicker,
Flicker,
Hope.

Step...
Step...
By,
Step...

Into...
The light.

There once was a man,
And he was brave!

In the middle of the night,
When the moon was gone.

The gentle breeze caressed my face,
Pregnant with salt, cool to touch.

Fireflies glowing with all their might,
And lighting up barely nothing.

A boat slowly made its way to shore,
With nary a soul on board,
None that was still alive.

The hold though, was overflowing,
Food, wine, silks and fine leather,
Not to mention all the gold and silver.

Of value on the boat,
There was but one small thing,
A half written poem,
Discarded and abandoned on the floor.